VALLEY FORGE PA – If the Tri-County region experiences what electrical power experts describe as “expected” conditions this winter, its anticipated supply of electricity should be adequate. But with higher demand, fewer generators, and power reserves shrinking, a severe storm could pose problems, PJM Interconnection warns.
PJM is the electrical grid operator for all or parts of Pennsylvania and 12 other states, and the District of Columbia. Its “winter outlook” report was issued earlier this month. The news seems to be a mix of good and worrisome.
The good? PJM suggests the grid will have enough “resources to meet forecasted peak demand” of users this winter. It should have enough power to export to neighboring grids too, if needed, it adds. Also, the system is expected to “remain reliable under several more less likely scenarios.” It says they involve lower levels of gas and renewable generation, higher electricity demand, or more exports.
The worrisome? Users probably remember Winter Storm Elliott, which socked the U.S. during Christmas week during December 2022. Its “blizzards, high winds, snowfall, and record cold temperatures” caused wide-spread power failures across the country, including Pennsylvania. “Extreme weather scenarios” like that of Elliott “may require the use of emergency procedures,” PJM’s report notes.
Concerns, and Guidance for Suppliers
PJM says it “remains concerned that increasing demand, ongoing generator retirements and the slow pace of new (electricity) projects coming online are tightening reserves.” Those combined factors “add a degree of risk that generator failures on the level of Elliott could leave the system vulnerable to power outages,” it reports.
To address potential problems, PJM says it is guiding electricity suppliers to increase staffing for weather emergencies, perform required maintenance activities, and prepare equipment for winter conditions. It also is scheduling site visits with other regional authorities at generators’ properties to ensure reliability.
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Center photo by Thomas Bennie on Unsplash, also used under license
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